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Brussels is reducing expectations of the EU's economic recovery - Global Online Money Finder
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Brussels is reducing expectations of the EU’s economic recovery

The EU’s path to recovery from the economic effects of Covid-19 has been pushed back by the second wave of the pandemic and it will take at least two years for the bloc’s economy to return to pre-pandemic levels, Brussels warned.

The recovery from the EU’s deepest downturn in history will be slower than previously expected on Thursday, according to new European Commission projections as the virus resurgence has forced most member states to impose new activity restrictions in recent weeks.

The Commission expects the EU economy to contract 7.4 percent this year, unchanged from its previous forecast. However, it has downgraded its expectation for a 2021 rebound from May’s forecast of 6.1 percent expansion by 2 percentage points to 4.1 percent.

Paolo Gentiloni, EU economic commissioner, said the “very strong recovery” in the economy this summer was “interrupted” by the resurgence of the virus, as many companies across Europe were forced to close again.

“Growth will return in 2021, but it will be two years before the European economy is almost back to the pandemic,” Gentiloni said. “Growth will stall in the fourth quarter and accelerate in the first part of 2021.”

The forecasts came as separate data showed that retail sales in the eurozone fell 2 percent in September compared to the previous month. This was the biggest drop since much of the region was locked in April.

The steeper-than-expected decline came before the new lockdowns were put in place, suggesting that the bloc’s economy was losing steam before renewed economic success.

The largest declines were in textiles, apparel and shoes, as well as mail order and the Internet, both of which decreased by more than 5 percent. The countries with the largest decreases were Belgium, France and Germany.

Meanwhile, German industrial orders rose 0.5 percent in September, a smaller increase than most economists expected, but a sign of the resilience of European manufacturing compared to the larger service sector, which was harder hit by the effects of the pandemic.

Spain is expected to suffer the worst downturn of any member state this year, the Commission expects, with production falling by 12.4 percent. Italy will fall 9.9 percent and Croatia will also be hard hit at 9.6 percent. A production decline of 9.4 percent is expected for France, with Germany with 5.6 percent and Ireland with 2.3 percent recording the smallest downturn in the EU.

The Brussels forecast is based on the assumption that some level of containment measures will remain in place through 2022, Gentiloni said.

The commission warned that as the global health crisis unfolds, its forecast poses “exceptionally high” risks. A worsening pandemic could “lead to more severe and longer-lasting economic effects,” it said.

“There is also a risk that the scars left by the economic pandemic – such as bankruptcies, long-term unemployment and supply disruptions – will go deeper and farther,” the forecast said.

Mr Gentiloni urged EU countries to maintain exceptional levels of financial support, although this will significantly increase national debt. Italy will have a public debt ratio of 159 percent in the next two years, the Commission predicts; On average, the euro zone will exceed 100 percent by at least 2022.

The EU is currently negotiating a final agreement on its € 750 billion recovery fund, which is not expected to pay out money to the affected economies until later this year. Mr Gentiloni said the forecast did not take into account the tax implications of the fund, which is made up of grants and loans.

The Commission estimates that the cyclical effect of the fund, once it goes into operation, could increase EU GDP by up to 2 percent over the years it was in operation.

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